10 Big Takeaways from The FIA & Jefferies Fusion Day

As world and energy leaders descended upon New York City for Climate Week, I was pleased to see the positive vibe. On Monday, Axios reported on Al Gore's remarks from the UN General Assembly, capturing this feeling when he said, “The solar surge is among my reasons for optimism, but we still have a long way to go.” Across town, the other solar-inspired sustainable energy source, fusion energy, was the focus of Jefferies Investments and the Fusion Industry Association’s (FIA) summit on “Scaling Fusion Energy - Industry and Energy Perspectives.” This summit was led by Andrew Holland, CEO of the FIA, and Aniket Shah, Managing Director and Global Head of Sustainable and Transition Strategy at Jeffries.

Fusion Energy is Very Competitive

The competition in the fusion energy market is not just healthy; it's exhilarating. The speakers from Zap Energy, Thea Energy, Type-One Energy, Avalanche Fusion, Commonwealth Fusion, and General Fusion are championing their unique methods for commercially viable fusion energy. This diversity of approaches promises a future with many options, each backed by exceptional brainpower and creativity. 

10 Big Takeaways From the FIA & Jefferies Summit

Here are ten big takeaways from the speakers:

1. Fusion’s Kitty Hawk Moment - The example of a “Kitty Hawk Moment” for fusion energy was debated. Some felt it was the NIF announcement of Q>1. Others felt the “Kitty Hawk Moment” would be when fusion energy put power on the grid, but no one disagreed that fusion would happen and change how the world moves forward.
2. The Grid Milestone - Fusion will add energy to power grids in the 2030s. Ignition Research predicts that fusion energy will be a $1 trillion market in 2050, aligning with the historical timelines of nuclear (1958-1978) and wind power (2003-2023) to reach 10% of power production in the US by that time.
3. China is Racing Ahead Towards Fusion - We are not alone in the race for fusion, and China is racing forward to lead in its strategic energy technology. The WSJ says China will invest $1.5B in fusion this year, significantly outspending the US. CNN reports that China is using its strong position in its ability to drive government mandates, procure rare earth elements, accelerate supply chains, and leverage published fusion research to compete in the race for fusion energy. We must drive US and allied nations' investment and supply chain development to lead in fusion energy.
4. Fusion is a Team Sport (Public, Private, Global) - The speakers from multiple countries wanted to clarify that fusion energy must be a “team sport” for the US and allied nations, making investments more significant than the US alone. While the US leads in many fusion technology areas and has active VC (Engine Ventures, Breakthrough Energy) and strategic investment (Chevron), this will not be enough. We need substantial mobilization of public resources to drive fusion energy forward. The FIA has proposed a program for the US government to increase fusion funding to something on the scale of the US CHIPS Act.
5. Fusion Will Not Be Free - Benj Conway, CEO of Zap Energy, stated that the industry “has to stop saying fusion energy would be free.” Fusion Energy will be a business that needs to generate returns for the companies and investors. However, it can be plentiful and able to bring energy to people and places that have faced challenges in establishing clean and environmentally friendly energy. The facts are that many billionaires are investing in fusion, but they expect the billions invested to yield trillions in returns.
6. Can Fusion Be Affordable? - This is a much bigger unknown than whether fusion energy would happen. Can fusion produce power in the range of $50/MwH? This is still an aspirational objective; while the signs are positive, it has yet to be proven. This is one of the many reasons public-private funding in the US and allied nations must scale to make fusion energy abundant and affordable.
7. Fusion is Not Just About Power Generation - Like the technologies that emerged from the US space program in the 1960s, fusion energy research is expected to spawn new technologies and applications. From magnets for MRIs to more efficient EV charging, the potential of fusion energy extends far beyond just meeting our energy needs.
8. AI and Fusion Synergy - AI data centers need the power created by fusion energy, and fusion energy needs AI to optimize the process and reduce costs to make it affordable. Google, Amazon, and Microsoft are all active in AI to develop fusion and seek fusion energy for their data centers.
9. Green Field vs. Brown Field Deployments - Based on the conversations at the event, it seems likely that the first fusion plant deployments will be standalone systems for data centers and industrial applications (like steel) green field applications that do not require as much regulatory overhead, probably won’t need new power line approvals and should enable us to prove the viability and safety of fusion energy.
10. Regulatory Support - The importance of regulatory support cannot be overstated in the journey of fusion energy. The US has taken a significant step by passing the Fusion Energy ACT, amending the Atomic Energy Act of 1954 to add a new definition of “fusion machines” as particle accelerators. The UKAEA is also moving in a similar direction, passing new rules to regulate fusion differently than nuclear fission. These developments are making the adoption of fusion energy faster and less complicated, providing a reassuring sign of progress. 

A Fusion Future - It's a Process, Not a Dream

Every new technology or industry advancement has resulted from a combination of purpose, talent, opportunity, policy, and capital. The US moon landing is one of the most straightforward examples. The advent of the Internet and the World Wide Web is another significant example of how government R&D incubated the technology, the social/business need emerged, the talent pool assembled, and the private capital collapsed into global change.

Though many questions remain related to fusion energy, it is clear that this technology is a certainty and no longer a dream in the distant future. The technology must continue to be developed so that the critical mass of capabilities, demand, capital, and government support can coalesce to make fusion energy a reality sooner (~2035) rather than later.